As we consider potential research in the aftermath of the current Australian bushfires it is important to explore what previous post-fire research tells us. A review of lessons learnt from post-fire research about human behaviour and community safety was conducted by Dr Joshua Whittaker 10 years after the Black Saturday fires of 2009.
The Black Saturday bushfires on 7 February 2009 had a devastating impact on Victorian communities. As a result of the fires, 173 people lost their lives, more than 400 people were hospitalised and more than 2000 homes were destroyed. Subsequently, there was a royal commission and significant changes to Australian bushfire management. These changes included:
- greater emphasis in public messaging on leaving early as the safest response to bushfires
- revision of the Fire Danger Rating system to include a code red or catastrophic rating
- stringent land-use planning and building controls
- greater provision of sheltering advice and options such as Neighbourhood Safer Places and personal bushfire shelters.
Research contributed to the royal commission and subsequent changes. The research was primarily undertaken by the Bushfire CRC 2009 Victorian Bushfires Research Taskforce. This included interviews with more than 600 householders and a mail survey of 1314 households.
The research highlighted many challenges and issues on Black Saturday, including:
- limited awareness and preparedness for bushfire risk
- a tendency for people to leave or evacuate at the last moment
- the inadequacy of preparedness and defensive actions in fires burning under what are now considered catastrophic fire danger conditions.
There were also examples of highly effective preparedness and response, such as survival of the majority of those who took shelter during the fires.
Many (7 in 10) survey respondents reported that they had a ‘plan’, but most people had not considered what they would do if other household members were not home during a fire. They were more likely to have undertaken simple preparations as part of general property maintenance (e.g., cleaning leaves from around the house) than more complex and costly preparations (e.g., installing seals around windows and doors). While most people believed their preparedness level was ‘high’ to ‘very high’ (46%) or average (36%), almost three-quarters acknowledged they could have been better prepared.
There was broad support for ‘staying to defend’ and limited acceptance of the ‘leave early’ message. About half (53%) of survey respondents stayed to defend, 43 per cent left their homes or properties before or when the fire arrived and 4 per cent sheltered inside a house or another structure, vehicle or somewhere outside. Very few people (2%) evacuated on the sole basis of official extreme fire danger weather predictions. More than one-third of those people who defended their homes left at some stage during the fire (38%), usually because of perceived danger, failure of equipment or because the house caught fire. More than half (54%) of those people who left considered that they left too late. Success or failure in defending a home was not strongly associated with prior preparations. Under the extreme weather conditions of the day, chance often played a role.
Householder decisions to stay and defend were based on several factors, including emotional attachment to their home, the desire to protect assets and the sometimes ill-founded belief that they would be successful.
Men more often stayed to defend than women (62% vs. 42%), who more often left before or when the fire arrived (54% vs. 35%). Women were more likely than men to leave on the advice of relatives, neighbours and emergency services personnel. This suggests opportunities for tailoring messages specifically to women encouraging early evacuation. Disagreements often arose due to differing intentions between men and women, particularly if bushfire plans had not been discussed in advance. However, there were many women who intended to leave (42%) who did stay and defend (42%) during the fire. The research also demonstrated the need for greater provision of local sheltering options for people who are unable to leave fire-affected areas.
Other research since Black Saturday
There have been a number of post-fire research studies of community preparedness and responses to bushfires throughout Australia since Black Saturday. These studies found:
- There was still an appreciable minority of people (7–33%) who did not believe they were at risk and had no bushfire plan prior to the fire (8–32%).
- There was an increase (from 24% to 26–65%) in the proportion of householders who intended to leave when threatened by bushfires.
- There was a decline (from 48% to 10–34%) in the proportion of people who planned to stay and defend.
- Very few people (27–52%) left for a safer location based on the predicted fire danger conditions. Many individuals stayed to defend their properties under extreme and even catastrophic fire danger conditions, despite the fire services advice to the contrary.
Implications
Despite the emphasis placed on leaving early as the safest option, research since Black Saturday indicates that many people remain unaware of bushfire risk and will only leave once a fire is threatening. Many people find it impractical to leave on days of catastrophic fire danger and they intend to wait until they see fire before leaving. Other people are committed to defending against fires despite advice that houses are not defendable in those conditions.
Further work is needed to ensure consistency in research approaches, including in questionnaire instruments, so that findings can be compared and tracked over time. This review does not focus on the mental health impact of bushfires and the support needs of those affected.
Access the published paper